Leading Indicators of Economic Activity for the United States

A collection of leading indicators of economic conditions in the United States, most are seasonally adjusted and indexed to 100 for December 2019: pre-COVID baseline. In general conditions in the US have continued to slow at a moderate pace since the post COVID rebound peak.

Consumer and business sentiment

Indices adjusted to be 100 as at December 2019. There is a stark divergence between the consumer and business sentiment post COVID, while both were strongly negatively affected by COVID, business sentiment has largely recovered post COVID while consumer sentiment has further deteriorated.

  • Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Business Tendency Surveys (Manufacturing): Confidence Indicators: Composite Indicators: National Indicator for United States [BSCICP02USM460S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BSCICP02USM460S.
  • University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT.

Survey of Regional Conditions and Expectations (SORCE)

Labour market conditions

Employment, vacancies and wages trends. Unemployment is represented in its inverse, aligned to vacanies and wages.

  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings: Total Nonfarm JTSJOR, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rate UNRATE, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees, Total Private CES0500000003, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Labour hiring and firing

All data index to 100 as at December 2019, (prior to COVID) and seasonally adjusted, the firing data has been inverted to match reflect that as vacancies increases labour market firing rate should decrease.

  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings: Total Nonfarm JTSJOR, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quits: Total Nonfarm JTSQUR, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Layoffs and Discharges: Total Nonfarm JTSLDR, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

US revenue passenger miles

For flights, indexed to December 2019 (prior to COVID), seasonally adjusted

U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Revenue Passenger Miles for U.S. Air Carrier International, Scheduled Passenger Flights RPMID11, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.


Freight Transportation Services Index

Measures the volume of freight transportation services moved monthly by the for-hire transportation sector in the United States, it incorporates monthly data from air freight, pipeline, rail, truck, and water transport modes. It is compared to the Truck Tonnage Index which measures just the freight carried by truck excluding other transportation modes.

  • U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Freight Transportation Services Index TSIFRGHT, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Truck Tonnage Index TRUCKD11, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Cass Freight Index

Compares real freight expenditure (adjusted by PCE Inflation) and shipments, index to 100 at the start of 2020.

The index is updated with monthly freight expenditures and shipment volumes from the entire Cass client base. Volumes represent the month in which transactions are processed by Cass, not necessarily the month when the corresponding shipments took place.

Cass Information Systems, Inc., Cass Freight Index: Shipments FRGSHPUSM649NCIS, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.


Residential property prices

Percent annual growth in house prices for all the United States.

  • U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States USSTHPI, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index CSUSHPISA, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New One Family Homes for Sale in the United States HNFSEPUSSA, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Housing construction permits

Permits for new housing construction are a leading indicator of confidence in home owners and builders to invest in the lengthy and costly process of new buildings.

  • U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New Privately-Owned Housing Units Authorized in Permit-Issuing Places: Total Units PERMIT, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Motor vehicle sales

Retail sales of heavy weight, light weight motor vehicles.

  • U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Motor Vehicle Retail Sales: Heavy Weight Trucks HTRUCKSSAAR, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Light Weight Vehicle Sales: Autos and Light Trucks ALTSALES, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Industrial production

The Federal Reserve's monthly index of industrial production and the related capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates cover manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. The capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity index, capacity utilization rates cover manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities.

  • Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Industrial Production: Total Index INDPRO, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Capacity Utilization: Total Index TCU, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Financial Conditions Index

The Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) provides a comprehensive weekly update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt and equity markets and the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index ANFCI, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Brave-Butters-Kelly Leading Index

The BBK Leading Index is the leading subcomponent of the cycle measured in standard deviation units from trend real GDP growth. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

  • Indiana University. Indiana Business Research Center, Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index BBKQLEIX, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

OECD Composite Leading Indicators

Composite index combining:

  • Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Leading Indicators OECD: Leading Indicators: Composite Leading Indicator: Amplitude Adjusted for United States USALOLITOAASTSAM, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.